Drawdown
Drawdown Research Centre • Evidence-Led Intelligence

Independent Trading Research & Empirical Analysis

Drawdown does not publish generic hype. We produce empirical broker audits, drawdown recovery mathematics, risk-of-ruin studies, and downloadable datasets to help traders build defensible processes.

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DRAWDOWN OBSERVED2026-08-01

The Non-Linear Mathematics of Trading Drawdown Recovery

An empirical model of required return curves, position-sizing decay, and account recovery probabilities.

Research Question:

"How does loss depth non-linearly accelerate the percentage gain required to restore initial equity, and what impact does static versus dynamic position sizing have on expected recovery time?"

Key Findings:
  • A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to breakeven, but under fixed 2% fractional risk, expected recovery trade count increases by 312% due to shrinking position sizes.
  • Consecutive loss clusters of 6 or more trades occur in 94.2% of 100-trade samples even with a 55% win rate strategy.
  • Dynamic position scaling after drawdowns exceeding 25% significantly reduces probability of account recovery within 50 trades.
Version v1.0•Updated 2026-08-01

1 recorded update | Last reviewed: 2026-08-04 by Quantitative Risk Reviewer

Sample: 10,000 simulated account equity curves across 5 drawdown depths (10%, 20%, 30%, 50%, 70%)Download Data (CSV)
DRAWDOWN OBSERVED2026-07-20

Empirical UK Retail Broker Cost Audit: Spreads, Swap Rates & Hidden Fees

A comparative measurement of real round-trip trading costs across major FCA-regulated forex and CFD platforms.

Research Question:

"What is the net effective round-trip cost (spread + commission + swap financing) for a standard 1-lot position held overnight across major UK brokers?"

Key Findings:
  • Average London session EUR/USD spreads ranged from 0.6 pips on raw-spread accounts to 1.3 pips on standard commission-free accounts.
  • Overnight swap financing costs varied by up to 48% between brokers for identical long currency pairs.
  • Hidden currency conversion fees (typically 0.5% to 1.0%) on non-GBP denominated accounts added an average of £4.20 per £1,000 transaction.
Version v1.0•Updated 2026-07-20

1 recorded update | Last reviewed: 2026-08-02 by Regulatory & Legal Entity Reviewer

Sample: 1,200 price & order observations on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and FTSE 100

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